Who Stands to Gain from the Karabakh Conflict?

Valery TumanovIncoming information about the intensive rearmament carried out in the armies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh (unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic) suggests that the Karabakh many years conflict is under increasing strain and armed hostilities there could resumeThe war in Nagorno-Karabakh was stopped in 1994 when the warring parties concluded a truce. But although 17 years have passed from the moment of its signing it has not brought lasting peace, because negotiations of many years, the search for a compromise never gave the desired result. And this lack of any progress in the negotiation process, the stubborn defense of the own position without the desire to make mutual concessions is a major cause of deterioration of the situation. Both sides are stressed and rattling weapons, although a deadlock of the problem solving by military means is obvious. Then this brings up a natural question: ?Who stands to gain from the Karabakh conflict, who is interested in its continuation?? 

To speak about the war supporters in Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is easy to see that they are political adversaries of the prevailing authorities in both countries. Both Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, and Serzh Sargsyan, Armenian President, have plenty of enemies that try to seize power. And they use the Karabakh map to overthrow the current leadership, accusing it of betraying the national interest, inability to negotiate, cowardice, and other ?sins?. 

The War Party in Baku calls for revenge - because as a result of the Karabakh war Azerbaijan has lost, by estimations of Baku politicians, 20 percent of its territory. We mean Nagorno-Karabakh itself and several surrounding districts occupied by its military units, including the strategically most important of them ? Lachin, being a bridge connecting Karabakh with Armenia. But Ilham Aliyev, in spite of the statements made several times on Baku?s readiness to resolve the conflict by force, yet still takes care, remembering that exactly his father, Heydar Aliyev, was a major supporter of the armistice, calling the Karabakh war ?madness?. 

However, to reflect the accusations of his political opponents of ?betrayal? and ?cowardice?, he from time to time makes belligerent statements and intensively re-arms the army, which had showed low fighting efficiency during the war of the early 1990s. 

Serge Sargsyan is also induced by the opposition that rejects the search for compromise, insisting on the firmness and obstinacy, and calls useless all negotiations with Azerbaijan. Sargsyan has to reckon with the pressure applied on him (so much so he remembers the fate of President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, prematurely resigned because of his desire to make peace with Azerbaijan even at the cost of some concessions) and requires from Baku the recognition of the NKR, which for Ilham Aliyev is, of course, unacceptable. Sargsyan understands this, but simply can not behave differently, in order not to lose power. And he is busy with rearming the army, walking, as usual, after a rule: ?If you wish peace, prepare for war" 

But besides domestic supporters of the continuation of the Karabakh conflict and even its transfer to a military stage, there are external forces interested in the aggravation of the situation, helping the adversaries to arm. Accusations against Russia that are sometimes heard are absolutely groundless, because Moscow in addition to being a mediator in peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan and making every effort to achieve their success, is vitally interested in a peaceful Caucasus. The resumption of war could greatly complicate and even blow up the situation in the North Caucasus being already not very quiet because of terrorist threats, which would be fraught with very serious consequences for Moscow. 

But the resumption of war, the continuation of the Karabakh conflict seem to suit the USA. First, because of the fact that this war will worsen the situation in the North Caucasus and will cause Russia nothing but trouble. It will be remembered in this connection that Washington in the 1990s supported the Chechen separatists, and even the U.S. State Department received their emissaries. And, secondly, Americans have long shown great interest in the South Caucasus, mainly due to the oil and gas resources of Azerbaijan, and they would like to gain a foothold in this strategically important region. In Tbilisi, they hold strong positions thanks to the pro-American Mikhail Saakashvili, and would like to have equally strong ones in Baku and Yerevan. Causing a clash once again between the warring parties, they could afterwards act as peacemakers, showing Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan Moscow?s helplessness in conflict resolution and conversely, their exceptional usefulness. 

Precisely for this reason Washington has repeatedly offered to send its peacekeeping force in the conflict zone and at the same time urges Baku and Yerevan on a new war. Americans on the one hand already help Azerbaijan to rearm, on the other - offer the same services to Armenia, where the Russian military base is located, something the Americans do not want. In short, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh promises considerable dividends to Washington that promise assistance to both countries. 

Also Turkey, Azerbaijan?s longtime ally, is urging Baku on the resumption of war. It actively supplies the latest offensive weapon to this country - not only for allied reasons but also because of its openly hostile relations with Armenia Ankara refuses to recognize the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915, which makes impossible, according to Yerevan, even the simple establishment of diplomatic relations between the countries.

Turkey cannot but understand how it is dangerous for Azerbaijan the continuation of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but still urges Baku on power methods, promising its support, assuring of success of hostilities, if Ilham Aliyev follows Ankara?s and its military specialists? advices. 

It should be said that Armenia is supported by the European Union, especially France, where Armenian Diaspora?s influence is quite noticeable. And France, if necessary, will probably help Armenia to re-equip the army. In any event, Yerevan can count on Paris? sympathy. 

So, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh can become a reality. And this largely due to the fact that there are countries interested in it, and even provoking it.