Ukraine Military Dispositions <<PDF
The Military Ticks Up while the Clock Ticks Down
http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=06KYIV4489#para-182829-27
On 2 April, NATO’s Supreme Commander in Europe General Philip M
Breedlove made it clear that the Alliance is about to announce a series of
military measures to demonstrate that it is still a working military command
structure capable of defending all its external borders. These measures are
designed both to reassure NATO’s eastern members and to send a loud
message to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that military adventures in the
former Soviet space would create an even more dangerous crisis for Europe
than the seizure of Crimea. No one, including Putin, knows what he may do
next as the situation changes. The crisis in Ukraine raised the Crimea issue for
him both as a difficult problem as well as an opportunity, and he apparently
chose to seize the opportunity without much anticipation of the cost.
For that reason alone, NATO officials have something to worry about.
Alongside the political initiatives to create a negotiated outcome and the
sanctions to apply pressure on the Russian leadership, there is a military
dynamic that is becoming more worrying and urgent. Russian troop
deployments – amounting to nearly 50,000 personnel – are noted in Figure
1, with their reserve elements behind them. Ukrainian troop dispositions
as of a month ago are illustrated in Figure 2, though this analysis is now
becoming outdated since it is known that some Ukrainian forces have begun
to take up positions in eastern Ukraine (see Box 1), drawing away from such
a heavy concentration in the west. They appear to be doing this covertly,
however, and it is not currently possible to locate all of their new positions.
The Military Ticks Up while the Clock Ticks Down
http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=06KYIV4489#para-182829-27
On 2 April, NATO’s Supreme Commander in Europe General Philip M
Breedlove made it clear that the Alliance is about to announce a series of
military measures to demonstrate that it is still a working military command
structure capable of defending all its external borders. These measures are
designed both to reassure NATO’s eastern members and to send a loud
message to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that military adventures in the
former Soviet space would create an even more dangerous crisis for Europe
than the seizure of Crimea. No one, including Putin, knows what he may do
next as the situation changes. The crisis in Ukraine raised the Crimea issue for
him both as a difficult problem as well as an opportunity, and he apparently
chose to seize the opportunity without much anticipation of the cost.
For that reason alone, NATO officials have something to worry about.
Alongside the political initiatives to create a negotiated outcome and the
sanctions to apply pressure on the Russian leadership, there is a military
dynamic that is becoming more worrying and urgent. Russian troop
deployments – amounting to nearly 50,000 personnel – are noted in Figure
1, with their reserve elements behind them. Ukrainian troop dispositions
as of a month ago are illustrated in Figure 2, though this analysis is now
becoming outdated since it is known that some Ukrainian forces have begun
to take up positions in eastern Ukraine (see Box 1), drawing away from such
a heavy concentration in the west. They appear to be doing this covertly,
however, and it is not currently possible to locate all of their new positions.
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