Nakhchivan: the next post-Soviet conflict?

Nakhchivan: the next post-Soviet conflict?

On 21-22 February 2011, a European delegation paid an official visit to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The visit was an opportunity for EU Ambassadors and representatives to discuss all aspects of their relationship with Nakhchivan in the context of the Eastern Partnership, since the autonomous republic is a landlocked exclave of Azerbaijan separated from the rest of the country by a strip of Armenian territory.  

Although Nakhchivan is not officially claimed by Yerevan, some Armenian political groups claim that the territory of the Azerbaijani autonomous republic should belong to Armenia, as huge Armenian religious and cultural remnants are witness of the historic presence of Armenians in the region. Turkey, which shares an 11-kilometer border with Nakhchivan, has long acted to provide support to ensure that the landlocked territory of 400,000 people survived. Both Ankara and Baku cite the 1921 Treaty of Kars, which defined Nakhchivan as part of Azerbaijan, as the basis for this support. Today, that relationship has become less about Nakhchivan’s immediate survival, and more about long-term projects for the exclave, especially in the wider context of energy cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Under a contract signed last year by the Turkish government and Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company, SOCAR, Turkey will transport 500 million cubic meters of Azerbaijani natural gas to Nakhchivan each year transit-free, while SOCAR will finance construction of a new 50-kilometer-long pipeline from the Turkish town of Igdir, near Erzurum, to provide the gas. Nakhchivan currently relies on gas shuttled via Iran, which charges a 15-percent transit fee for about 300 million cubic meters per year. The Turkish-Azerbaijani deal, while allowing Baku to almost double gas supplies to Nakhchivan for lower prices, will  reduce its dependence on Iran, and anti-Iranian sentiments are already increasing in Azerbaijan, as proved by recent demonstrations that have taken place in the Azerbaijani capital to protest against Teheran’s warmer ties with Yerevan.

Most Azerbaijanis take Turkey’s support for Nakhchivan as a matter of course, but the latest assistance projects were preceded with a clear message to Yerevan from Ankara. Nevertheless, Armenia can rely on Russia for protection against any Turkish threat. Furthermore, after its 2008 victory over Georgia, the Kremlin may actually use Armenian territory to further strengthen its own position in the Caucasus, that is the only region through which Caspian gas could reach Europe by-passing Russia, and even give Yerevan diplomatic support in case the Armenian leadership decides to create a parallel crisis in Nakhchivan to resolve the stalemate over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nevertheless, while the unrecognized republic within Azerbaijan’s borders is a predominantly Armenian enclave, the landlocked exclave of Nakhchivan is inhabited by an overwhelming majority of Azerbaijanis. For this reason, a diplomatic offensive centered on Armenian and Russian recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh republic would be actually a better option than war, since it would weaken the position of Azerbaijan as both a potential US ally in the Caucasus and Armenia’s regional rival avoiding a new bloodbath.

LOCATION OF NAKHCHIVAN ON AZERBAIJAN’S MAP

The importance of Nagorno-Karabakh is crucial for the balance of power in the Caucasus, but the geopolitical position of Nakhchivan is even more sensitive, since the status of the autonomous republic not only has a direct impact over the foreign policies of Armenia and Russia on one side, and Azebaijan on the other side, but also influences geopolitical aspirations of two raising powers: Turkey and Iran. This is why the international community, while putting all its efforts to avoid a new military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, should focus as well on the situation in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, with the aim of avoiding the eruption of another post-Soviet conflict whose consequences may actually go beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union.