Political unrest nearing Russia's southern border

Political unrest nearing Russia's southern border - February, 2012

Couple of Washington's several propaganda organs operating in Armenia are jointly reporting that Secretary-General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Nikolai Bordyuzha has publicly stated that the CSTO will help Armenia in "domestic emergencies" and "critical situations".

I think we all know what "domestic emergencies" mean. Moscow is getting ready to react to any Western-instigated uprising in Armenia during Armenia's upcoming presidential elections. Currently, Western activists throughout Armenian society are actively seeding Armenia for political unrest and some activists are even going as far as claiming that "Arab Spring" type demonstrations are being organized in Armenia. Being that Armenia plays a vital geostrategic role for senior officials in Russia, Moscow is not going to leave anything to chance, nor is it going to blindly rely on Armenians to confront this potentially serious problem. Therefore, I think we can all expect Moscow to take more drastic measures as Western-instigated wars and political unrest reach Russian borders.

The escalating unrest and "critical situations" in regions adjacent to Russia's vulnerable underbelly is elevating the importance of the already very important geostrategic significance of the Caucasus for Moscow. As Western-instigated wars and political unrests encroach on Russian interests in the region, Moscow is beginning to take on a more aggressive political posture. Libya was the pawn Moscow reluctantly gave up in its desperate effort to protect its bishops, Syria and Iran. Realizing now that its presence in the strategic region are directly threatened by the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance and friends, Moscow has finally decided to do away with diplomatic niceties and draw a firm line in the sand.

There are no worries with regards to Armenia's and Artsakh's territorial integrity. I can confidently state that Moscow will protect the embattled little republic in the Caucasus as if it is a part of Russia itself. For centuries Armenia has been protecting Russia's southern gate and it has been an effective hedge against regional Turks and Muslims. The geostrategic significance of Armenia today is as important for Russian officials as it was for Czarist officials, if not more. In a region that is saturated with powerful Turkic and Islamic influences, Armenia's national independence and its alliance with Moscow will be zealously protected by Russian officials. If Moscow was ready to go to war when Armenia was threatened by Turkey in the early 1990s, in a time when Moscow was literally on its knees, I think the reader can use his/her imagination as to what Moscow would be willing to do today if outside forces threatened Armenia. Let me put it this way. If Moscow is willing to forcefully standup to the West and the rest over Syria and Iran, we can safely expect Moscow to activate its nuclear arsenal if Armenia is in any way threatened.

Recent developments have clearly shown that Ankara and Baku are continuing to pursue political policies and alliances that are placing them in clear opposition to Iranian and Russian interests in the region. Push comes to shove, Russia is more than militarily capable of taking on Turks and the West and Iran is more than capable of decimating Azerbaijan. In the event of a regional war, I expect Russia to come out on top. Moscow is currently the most prepared in the region to take advantage of possible hostilities. With Vladimir Putin returning to power, we can also expect an abrupt end to Moscow's nuanced approach with regards to the West and Turks and we can finally start the countdown to Saakashvili's departure from Tbilisi - dead or alive. Make no mistake about it, if upcoming elections in Georgia does not unseat the bloody dictator, Georgia will again be placed on Moscow's chopping block for further mutilation. Many political analysts agree that a Western-led attack against Iran and/or Syria has the potential of drastically changing the political map of the region in question. To that, I would also add that one of the first casualties of such a war may be Georgia.

As various power in the region maneuver for better positioning, the geopolitical divide is becoming better defined. Currently, the two main opposing sides presenting themselves on the proverbial grand chessboard is the Anglo-American-Zionist alliance (supported by Turkey and Gulf Arab states) and the Russian Federation and Iran (with limited support by China) on the other side. For the foreseeable future, the geopolitical divide in the region will essentially reflect this complex lineup. Needless to say, we all know where Armenia will have to fall in politically. Yerevan will remain firmly in an alliance with Moscow. 

If a major regional war breaks out there are in fact some scenarios that may actually be advantageous for Yerevan. If Baku, Tbilisi and Ankara continue their risky pursuits in the region, they may eventually end up suffering wrath of Moscow and Tehran. Thanks to the strategic foresight of a few high ranking officials in Armenia, due to its strategic alliance with Moscow, Yerevan today stands poised to reap significant benefits in such a scenario.If relations between Moscow and the West continues to worsen; if Baku and Tbilisi continue playing with fire; if the Western alliance goes forward with its aggression against Syria and/or Iran; there may come a time when Yerevan will be presented with opportunities to either establish a direct access to the Black Sea or create common borders with the Russian Federation - or both.

Yerevan should not be seeking a war. But if a war is imposed upon the region by external forces, Yerevan should begin seeking ways to effectively exploit it.

Javakhq may be a set forward but in the long-term it is not good enough. A direct access to the Black Sea and/or a common border with the Russian Federation should be the single most important agenda for officials in Armenia. Such an agenda needs to be a pan-national pursuit and something that should be incorporated into the Hay Dat. If we want Armenia to prosper - and to finally be taken seriously by international bodies - Armenians simply need to figure out a way of providing our small, impoverished, landlocked and remote nation in the volatile Caucasus with a opportunity to breakout of its geographic predicament. As long as Armenia remains in its current situation, it will forever beg at the feet of the great powers.

I have said previously, Armenia is too small for the Armenian. Armenia's many cutthroat business sharks (the ones we are so proud of when they do their throat-cutting elsewhere) are currently swimming in a tiny, understocked pond. Our nation's voracious sharks need a well-stocked ocean to operate in. Armenia needs direct access to Russia and/or the Black Sea. Simply put, there are absolutely no other cures to Armenia's ailments.

However, despite how attractive the aforementioned proposal may seem at first glance, I also realize that the highly volatile region Armenia finds itself in does not need yet another war, let alone one on the scale that this one potentially promises to be. Due to its inherently destructive and very unpredictable nature, a war should not be wished for, except under the most drastic of situations.

With more direct Russian involvement in the protection of Syria and Iran, coupled with a Russian arms buildup in the south Caucasus, the likelihood for the West in starting military operations in the region is greatly diminished. Putting aside America's warmongering idiots in the Senate and Congress (most of them bought and paid for by various special interests, not the least of which are oil executives, arms developers, Zionists, Turks and Arab Monarchies), I do not think any serious high-ranking military official in America would be foolish enough to risk a military confrontation with the Russian Federation. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a majority of America's high ranking military officials would even be against attacking Iran.

I firmly believe that Russia's current muscle flexing, Damascus' surprising resilience and Tehran's active war preparations may actually be saving the global community from another world war. If the Western alliance and friends are made to realize that they have more to lose than to gain, they will back down.

Therefore, let's all hope for the best. But if the worst comes instead, let's at least hope that Armenian officials have the political maturity (i.e. the testicles) and/or the strategic foresight (i.e. the wisdom) to take advantage of situations as they emerge. Let's also hope that Moscow continues to live up to its expectations as the world's last powerful front against American imperialism, Islamic fanaticism and pan-Turkism.

As a political storm slowly gathers near Armenia's borders yet again, Yerevan needs to keep a close eye on its Western led/inspired "rights activists", "independent journalists" and "opposition politicians" and it needs to keep as close to Moscow as possible. The following articles appearing recently in various news agencies paint an accurate yet troubling picture of the current geopolitical climate of the greater Caucasus region. But I need to caution the reader that most of the pieces in question have been put out by Western propaganda organs such as Azatutyun Radio and ArmeniaNow. Therefore, I will again have to ask you ask you to disregard the political spin and read between the lies.

Arevordi
February, 2012